RFAs, the Series - Episode 4: Sam Carrick

Picking up from the last episode on Colin Smith, today we're going to talk about another Marlies centreman: Sam Carrick. He's tough, he's energizing, and he's a lot of fun to watch if you're a fan of old school hockey.

Sam Carrick taking warmups, from mapleleafs.nhl.com

As mentioned above, one of Sam's most notable characteristics is his toughness. Check out this fight from his most recent NHL game against the Tampa Bay Lightning, back in 2015.

Sam's only regular season NHL fight, a resounding win over J.T. Brown

He's not just a fighter though. His grit extends to other areas of his game, like fore-checking and defensive zone play. At the end of the day, though, Carrick remains, at best, a replaceable NHL forward.

Once again we're in a situation where Carrick hasn't played enough NHL games (only 16) to be statistically relevant. Additionally, he hasn't played a single NHL game since signing his most recent contract, a 1 year deal worth $600k. That makes the data from his 2014-15 NHL stint somewhat useless.

So, what?

Once again we're in a situation where we have to rely on our qualitative instincts. Doing these posts has definitely made me wish I had access to the Maple Leafs' proprietary AHL data. 

Anyway, here are some contract scenarios for Sam Carrick for next year. If you've been following these posts you're sensing a theme, but I'll repeat nonetheless. We'll do an ideal, a realistic, and a realistic case, to make sure we cover our bases.

Ideal: AHL contract

Sam hasn't shown anything of promise this season in terms of making progress towards a regular NHL gig. Since this is the ideal case, this suggests that one of two quite ideal things happen: one, Carrick decides he loves it in Toronto he wants to stay without an NHL deal; or, two, no one else is willing to offer him an AHL deal. These are far from impossible cases, but certainly optimistic.

The reason the Leafs would even want to bring Carrick back is, again, ideal. They'd have to value his contributions to the team atmosphere as well as those on the ice. Enough to let him fill one of probably two contested center spots on the Marlies.

Realistic: No contract

Realistically, Carrick probably doesn't get signed by the Leafs organization in any capacity. With Tony Cameranesi probably gaining one of those center spots, the Leafs would likely rather take a chance at turning someone else's trash into their own treasure than bring Carrick back. His season this year has left a lot to be desired, and it really doesn't look like he has much of a future with the Leafs organization.

Whether he gets signed by another organization is up in the air, though. I could see Brian Burke signing him in the name of truculence, or Ottawa attempting to get back some of that peskiness they once had by signing Carrick. Either way, he may not be the Leafs' concern.

Pessimistic: 1 year $600k

Another repeat deal, like I suggested in the Nazem Kadri post. Since this is the pessimistic case, it means management disagrees with basically everything I said in the realistic case. They would want Carrick back, enough to allow him to take an ELC spot. However, even in the pessimistic case, Carrick does not earn a raise.

Conclusion

Either way, whatever happens with Carrick won't be entirely notable. At least, not this Carrick. Later on in this series I'll cover name-sharing-but-not-related defenseman Connor Carrick. For today, reflect on whether Carrick means anything to this franchise going forward, and stay tuned for Episode 5, where we'll talk about former Vancouver Canuck, Frank Corrado.

RFAs, the Series - Episode 3: Colin Smith

Continuing on from Episode 2: Stuart Percy, today we're going to discuss Taylor Lautner Colin Smith.

A little too similar, if you ask me

Colin Smith was acquired by the Maple Leafs in a trade with the Colorado Avalanche. If you want some insight into him as a player, check out this Steve Dangle article on him. There's some good thoughts in there, not to mention some fantastic highlights.

Steve's ultimate conclusion is that Smith is an exciting prospect for the Maple Leafs. He has a small stature, but has been a points-machine with the Marlies since joining.

He jumped from 0.63 points-per-game (34 in 54) with the San Antonio Rampage (bottom 5 team) to 1.1 points-per-game (19 in 17, so far) with the Toronto Marlies (running away with the league lead). There's a tricky balance there between the benefits of playing with better players. On one hand, he can showcase his passing ability better with teammates who know where to be and can finish. On the other, he has better players around him to set him up, keep him in the offensive zone, etc. I'm tempted to say this falls somewhere in the middle of that spectrum.

At just 22, Smith certainly has some development left to go. He was acquired as a prospect so that shouldn't surprise anyone. It also shouldn't come as a surprise that the Leafs likely intend to hang on to him while he develops.

So, what?

What do you do with Smith then?

He would likely come into next season as the Marlies' number one center. A good opportunity for a young player. What kind of money do you give a player like this coming off of his entry level contract?

Ideal: 3 year $850k AAV, two-way contract

This locks Smith up for the rest of his likely development track. At the end of this contract, you can have a strong evaluation of him as a player and whether you want him to be part of your future or not. Ideally, during this time, he will establish a job in the NHL on a cheap contract. This would be ideal for the Leafs. 

A two-way contract would mean he would make substantially less in the AHL (where he would likely be). Not that MLSE needs to pinch pennies, but players like Smith are the reason two-way contracts exist.

Realistic: 1 year $600k AAV, two-way contract

This is the contract Sam Carrick got last season coming out of his ELC. While Smith has had far better AHL numbers, Carrick was up with the NHL club for 16 games before signing this contract. Smith has only played 1 game at the NHL level. As such, this seems like a pretty realistic contract, which would again be a two-way deal.

Pessimistic: 1 year $800k AAV, one-way contract

This pessimistic case has Smith's agents successfully arguing for a substantial raise due to his AHL performance. Since this is a one-way contract, it means he would get the same amount whether he was playing in the AHL or NHL.

While this is the worst case, it really wouldn't be all that bad.

Conclusion

At these prices, it's pretty obvious the Leafs will bring Smith back. No matter what the contract ends up being, keeping Smith around is unquestionably the right move. Even if he resembles a Twilight co-star.

Keep your eye out for the next episode, which will cover the previously mentioned Sam Carrick.