RFAs, the Series - Episode 5: Frank Corrado

Continuing on from the previous episode on Sam Carrick, we're going to talk about former Vancouver Canuck: Frank Corrado.

Oh, what could have been. Image courtesy of www.vancouversun.com

This pre-season, the Vancouver Canucks management decided that there wasn't room on their team for the future superstar defenseman, so they placed him on waivers. The Leafs were successful in claiming him on waivers, and it was at that point that the Frank Corrado ERA began.

Much better. Image courtesy of www.foxsports.com

Obviously, I'm overselling to poke fun at the Canucks, so let's pull back to reality and truly evaluate Frank Corrado.

After a succession of posts where there was no NHL advanced data to go on, we finally have a player who has played enough games to have a meaningful sample size. But, since advanced metrics don't really factor into contract talks much, I'll be skimming them over. This series is for contract analysis, not full player analyses. Unlike Peter Brandt in Moneyball, I can't do 47 51 player evaluations in one day (despite reminding a lot of people of Jonah Hill). 

So, here's a fun little graph from Corsica:

Graph taken from http://www.corsica.hockey/skaters/. Data is Score, Zone and Venue adjusted from 5v5

This is a distribution graph. So, the big hill part is how the league spreads out in terms of rel xGF% (possession stats with shot location data factored in). You can see the peak of the hill, and most of the area of the hill, is on the negative side of zero.

Meanwhile, Frank Corrado (the solid blue line) sits on both the right side of the peak and the right side of zero. This is good news. It means that, in terms of rel xGF%, Corrado is better than the majority of the league.

He's not in the elite portions of the graph near the far right, but above average is a good sign for the 23 year old defenseman. 

Corrado faltered slightly in the more traditional scoring stats, scoring only 6 points in 38 games. However, it still seems he has had a respectable season.

So, what?

How does Corrado fit into the organization's future? 

He's young enough to fit the timeline, so that's not of concern. Where the concern comes in is the glutton of young, bottom-pairing defensemen that the Leafs have. Harrington, Percy (who I wrote about here), and Connor Carrick all are worthy of NHL time. Loov and Valiev are right on their heels as well. Not to mention potentially adding free agents to the mix (Zaitsev, anyone?)

It really seems to come down to lefty vs. lefty and righty vs. righty. Harrington vs. Percy, Carrick vs. Corrado. I'll go ahead and assume the Leafs want to leave those battles to training camp and not try to decide them in the offseason. As such, it makes sense that they would try to bring him back.

But, at what dollar value? What length of time?

Here are the 3 typical perspectives, ideal, realistic and pessimistic:

Ideal: 1 year at $700k AAV

Corrado played only half a season, and only scored 6 points. He really doesn't have a strong case for a lot of money. He's coming off of a $632,500 contract, so this would be a small raise for him. It's not really NHL money, but remember, this is the ideal case.

Someone may make the point that I compared Corrado's situation to Percy's here, and yet Percy's ideal contract was $900k and Corrado's is $700k. The disparity, for me, comes from the fact that Corrado got a legitimate NHL shot and, by traditional metrics, was average or worse. The success of Percy's AHL campaign vs. the lack of such success of Corrado's NHL campaign. Once again, remember, this is the ideal case.

Also, I'm just now realizing that the "Ideal" case should have been the "Optimistic" case this whole time. Whatever, who needs directly opposite words when you have other synonyms, right?

Realistic: 1 year at $900k AAV

Now we're talking about getting close to bottom-pairing, "Stuart Percy" kind of money. It's still a 1 year "prove it" deal, but it's enough money to say they think he belongs. This seems a very agreeable number for Corrado's contract.

Pessimistic: 1 year at $1.5M AAV

Yet again, we're going to reference the Percy post, because I'm bringing back the strategy of paying Corrado more than he's worth to prevent him from being claimed on waivers. Once again, in this pessimistic case, we're assuming he's not good enough to make the team and are trying to protect him as such. It's a sneaky strategy, but one that could pay off for the Leafs if opportunity were to open up for Corrado later in the season (like if Matt Hunwick gets traded partway through the year, or someone has a long term injury). 

Conclusion

I think it's fairly obvious at this point that Corrado comes back to the Leafs organization next year, and since he's waiver-eligible, he will probably make the big club. I'm excited to see what he can do in a full-year campaign. I'm also really excited to see how these battles for the couple D-man spots on the Leafs roster shake out. It will be a very interesting preseason, undoubtedly.

Stay tuned for the next episode, where we'll talk about young goaltender and former Twitter funny-man, Garret Sparks.

RFAs, the Series - Episode 4: Sam Carrick

Picking up from the last episode on Colin Smith, today we're going to talk about another Marlies centreman: Sam Carrick. He's tough, he's energizing, and he's a lot of fun to watch if you're a fan of old school hockey.

Sam Carrick taking warmups, from mapleleafs.nhl.com

As mentioned above, one of Sam's most notable characteristics is his toughness. Check out this fight from his most recent NHL game against the Tampa Bay Lightning, back in 2015.

Sam's only regular season NHL fight, a resounding win over J.T. Brown

He's not just a fighter though. His grit extends to other areas of his game, like fore-checking and defensive zone play. At the end of the day, though, Carrick remains, at best, a replaceable NHL forward.

Once again we're in a situation where Carrick hasn't played enough NHL games (only 16) to be statistically relevant. Additionally, he hasn't played a single NHL game since signing his most recent contract, a 1 year deal worth $600k. That makes the data from his 2014-15 NHL stint somewhat useless.

So, what?

Once again we're in a situation where we have to rely on our qualitative instincts. Doing these posts has definitely made me wish I had access to the Maple Leafs' proprietary AHL data. 

Anyway, here are some contract scenarios for Sam Carrick for next year. If you've been following these posts you're sensing a theme, but I'll repeat nonetheless. We'll do an ideal, a realistic, and a realistic case, to make sure we cover our bases.

Ideal: AHL contract

Sam hasn't shown anything of promise this season in terms of making progress towards a regular NHL gig. Since this is the ideal case, this suggests that one of two quite ideal things happen: one, Carrick decides he loves it in Toronto he wants to stay without an NHL deal; or, two, no one else is willing to offer him an AHL deal. These are far from impossible cases, but certainly optimistic.

The reason the Leafs would even want to bring Carrick back is, again, ideal. They'd have to value his contributions to the team atmosphere as well as those on the ice. Enough to let him fill one of probably two contested center spots on the Marlies.

Realistic: No contract

Realistically, Carrick probably doesn't get signed by the Leafs organization in any capacity. With Tony Cameranesi probably gaining one of those center spots, the Leafs would likely rather take a chance at turning someone else's trash into their own treasure than bring Carrick back. His season this year has left a lot to be desired, and it really doesn't look like he has much of a future with the Leafs organization.

Whether he gets signed by another organization is up in the air, though. I could see Brian Burke signing him in the name of truculence, or Ottawa attempting to get back some of that peskiness they once had by signing Carrick. Either way, he may not be the Leafs' concern.

Pessimistic: 1 year $600k

Another repeat deal, like I suggested in the Nazem Kadri post. Since this is the pessimistic case, it means management disagrees with basically everything I said in the realistic case. They would want Carrick back, enough to allow him to take an ELC spot. However, even in the pessimistic case, Carrick does not earn a raise.

Conclusion

Either way, whatever happens with Carrick won't be entirely notable. At least, not this Carrick. Later on in this series I'll cover name-sharing-but-not-related defenseman Connor Carrick. For today, reflect on whether Carrick means anything to this franchise going forward, and stay tuned for Episode 5, where we'll talk about former Vancouver Canuck, Frank Corrado.

RFAs, the Series - Episode 3: Colin Smith

Continuing on from Episode 2: Stuart Percy, today we're going to discuss Taylor Lautner Colin Smith.

A little too similar, if you ask me

Colin Smith was acquired by the Maple Leafs in a trade with the Colorado Avalanche. If you want some insight into him as a player, check out this Steve Dangle article on him. There's some good thoughts in there, not to mention some fantastic highlights.

Steve's ultimate conclusion is that Smith is an exciting prospect for the Maple Leafs. He has a small stature, but has been a points-machine with the Marlies since joining.

He jumped from 0.63 points-per-game (34 in 54) with the San Antonio Rampage (bottom 5 team) to 1.1 points-per-game (19 in 17, so far) with the Toronto Marlies (running away with the league lead). There's a tricky balance there between the benefits of playing with better players. On one hand, he can showcase his passing ability better with teammates who know where to be and can finish. On the other, he has better players around him to set him up, keep him in the offensive zone, etc. I'm tempted to say this falls somewhere in the middle of that spectrum.

At just 22, Smith certainly has some development left to go. He was acquired as a prospect so that shouldn't surprise anyone. It also shouldn't come as a surprise that the Leafs likely intend to hang on to him while he develops.

So, what?

What do you do with Smith then?

He would likely come into next season as the Marlies' number one center. A good opportunity for a young player. What kind of money do you give a player like this coming off of his entry level contract?

Ideal: 3 year $850k AAV, two-way contract

This locks Smith up for the rest of his likely development track. At the end of this contract, you can have a strong evaluation of him as a player and whether you want him to be part of your future or not. Ideally, during this time, he will establish a job in the NHL on a cheap contract. This would be ideal for the Leafs. 

A two-way contract would mean he would make substantially less in the AHL (where he would likely be). Not that MLSE needs to pinch pennies, but players like Smith are the reason two-way contracts exist.

Realistic: 1 year $600k AAV, two-way contract

This is the contract Sam Carrick got last season coming out of his ELC. While Smith has had far better AHL numbers, Carrick was up with the NHL club for 16 games before signing this contract. Smith has only played 1 game at the NHL level. As such, this seems like a pretty realistic contract, which would again be a two-way deal.

Pessimistic: 1 year $800k AAV, one-way contract

This pessimistic case has Smith's agents successfully arguing for a substantial raise due to his AHL performance. Since this is a one-way contract, it means he would get the same amount whether he was playing in the AHL or NHL.

While this is the worst case, it really wouldn't be all that bad.

Conclusion

At these prices, it's pretty obvious the Leafs will bring Smith back. No matter what the contract ends up being, keeping Smith around is unquestionably the right move. Even if he resembles a Twilight co-star.

Keep your eye out for the next episode, which will cover the previously mentioned Sam Carrick.

RFAs, the Series - Episode 2: Stuart Percy

Continuing the series from Episode 1: Nazem Kadri, this episode will cover up-and-coming Maple Leafs defenseman Stuart Percy.

Now that's a game face

Percy was drafted 25th overall in 2011 by the Maple Leafs. He is now in his fourth year playing professionally in the Maple Leafs organization, primarily with the Toronto Marlies. Over this time, he's seen two stints with the Maple Leafs: one in 2014 to start the season, with 9 games; the second was this season after the trade deadline as an injury replacement for 3 games.

12 NHL games over 2 seasons is hardly enough data to utilize for analysis. Additionally, his AHL stats don't present much to analyze either. He scored some points, but isn't exactly a world-beater at that level. Suffice to say, we don't have a whole lot to go on.

Qualitatively, however, we can see that Percy sits pretty deep on the depth chart. Rielly, Gardiner, Marincin, Corrado and Hunwick all unquestionably go into next season ahead of Percy. After that, you get into Connor Carrick, Viktor Loov, and Scott Harrington, who will likely compete for those 6th and 7th spots in the D-core.

As a right handed shot, Carrick probably gets an advantage. Loov is waiver exempt, meaning he can be sent down to the minors without another team being able to claim on waivers. Percy and Harrington, however, will both be waiver eligible, so if they do not make the team, they could be claimed by other teams.

This puts Percy in a tough spot.

So, what?

What do you do with Percy, then?

For curiosity's sake, I put him into Corsica's Similarity Calculator (a fantastic new stats website, linked in the sidebar). It brings up comparable players for Percy based on advanced stats. One of the strongest comparables was Stephane Robidas, back when he was good. So that was marginally interesting. However, given Percy's lack of NHL time, it means very little.

Despite the lack of information available, we can still make a best guess as to what the Leafs might do. Here are 3 scenarios, again from the ideal, realistic and pessimistic perspectives.

Ideal: 1 year at $900K AAV

This is the ideal situation because it means the Maple Leafs found a way to fit him into their roster for the 2016-17 season. Obviously, retaining an asset for a good price like this is going to be ideal. If they can't do that, we move onto the other cases.

Realistic: Traded at the draft

At last season's draft, we saw Griffin Reinhart traded to the Edmonton Oilers for 16th and 33rd overall picks. Being that this is the realistic option, we'll go ahead and say no one will be stupid enough to make that trade for Percy. 

Realistically, Percy will have a formidable challenge to make this team. The Leafs could either use him to acquire additional picks, or include him in a trade with another team to trade up in the draft. Getting assets back or improving the assets you get at this draft would be a nice way to make use of Stuart Percy as an asset.

Pessimistic: 1 year at $1.2M AAV

This is the pessimistic case because we're assuming the Leafs can't find a worthwhile trade. This puts the team in a position to bring Percy back and hope he can impress. Being that this is the pessimistic case, we can also assume that the Leafs do not figure out a way to guarantee him a spot. This puts him at risk of not making the team and being placed on waivers. This is obviously not ideal. 

If I'm the Leafs, assuming the contract is only going to be 1 season, and I'm cornered into this situation, I might look at paying Percy far more than he's worth in hopes that he doesn't get claimed on waivers. Hence, the $1.2M price tag. You may even be tempted to go higher than that. It certainly could put some teams out of consideration for claiming him.

Conclusion

The Leafs are in a difficult position with Percy. I'm hopeful that he has a place on this team as a 7th defenseman next season. And, yet again, we'll have to wait and see.

Stay tuned for the next episode on newly acquired prospect Colin Smith.

RFAs, the Series - Episode 1: Nazem Kadri

This kicks off what's going to be a long series covering the Maple Leafs' current restricted free agents (RFAs) and what should be done with them.

The Leafs cleared out a lot of contracts they didn't want anymore in the Grabner and Phaneuf trades. This leaves them with a good amount of room for next season to stay under the 50 contract maximum. As such, a lot of these are going to be suggestions of bringing players back. The question will then be for how much and for how long.

Today we're going to talk about Nazem Kadri, the electric, sandpaper-type center for the Leafs.



The most prominent word that comes to mind for some with Kadri this season would be "disappointing". For me, it's "encouraging" or even "advantageous".

As I covered in part in my fanpost on Pension Plan Puppets, Kadri is having a weird season. The graphs there show his low shooting percentage, and his high possession numbers. The shooting percentage is something we're likely to see rise back to his career average, Here are the relevant images from that post:

Year	iCF60	SVACF60	SCF60	xGF60	GF60
2014-15	15.17	57.84	29.78	2.62	2.5
2015-16	19.92	63.94	33.13	2.69	2.05
Differential	4.75	6.1	3.35	0.07	-0.45

The basic conclusion was, that because of this data (really good possession numbers and really low shooting percentage) he'll likely be able to score much better next season. 

I'm glossing over the data analysis because most of it is in the post I mentioned. So go check that out if you want the nitty gritty on what these numbers mean.

Because of all of this, the Leafs have an opportunity to take advantage of Kadri's lack of production to get a good offensive center at a cost-effective price.

So, what?

Good question.

What do you do with that? 

Of course, I want to say he's a really good player who is snake-bitten but there's some legitimate arguments that his career production has never been at top-line level, barring his shortened season (where he had the opposite case of a very high shooting percentage with very low possession numbers). 

The logical thing to do is assume he's somewhere in the middle. An offensive-minded, blood-boiling centreman. 

As much as I love advanced statistics, though, I don't believe they factor into contract negotiations as much as I'd hope. A lot of what a player's value is is perception of impact as opposed to actual impact. As such, I haven't proposed comparables and will, instead, look at each player in as much of a vacuum as I can create.

His current contract is a one-year, $4.1 million deal. I'll propose and break down ideal, realistic, and pessimistic cases for contracts below.

Ideal: 4 years at $5 million AAV

This is where you really take advantage of an opportunity. Argue to him that his production stunk and you don't think he's that good. But you want to give him some comfortability and see if he can flourish without worrying about his contract. Who knows, it might work?

This deal is really nice because it buys 2 years of UFA time where Kadri's negotiating position is much stronger. It also aligns so that the timing isn't lined up with the expiration of Marner or Nylander's contracts. 

Realistic: 1 year at $4.1 million AAV

Bring him back on the exact same deal. It's not going to be feasible to give a young, confident player a pay cut. This is the best non-long-term case. Argue his production sucked so he doesn't deserve a raise, but he's getting an opportunity to prove he deserves one. He realistically doesn't deserve one after this season anyways. This is nice because, again, it's not lined up with Nylander or Marner.

Pessimistic: 2 years at $4.75 million AAV

In this case, Kadri successfully convinces management that he's worth a raise and is part of the future. I'm certain all parties understand it wasn't a good season, but we know his possession numbers are really good, so his agent could utilize that tool to win over management. 

This deal is unfortunate because it brings Kadri right up to UFA expiration. So the contract after this one would be much more expensive. Or, potentially, you lose him when you can't afford him anymore. Certainly pretty far from the ideal case, but not out of the realm of possibilities

Conclusion

There are certainly many opportunities to sign Kadri back to the Leafs. I, personally, would jump all over the opportunity to bring him back, even at the pessimistic contract. As with every post in this series, we'll have to wait and see.

Stay tuned for Episode 2 where we'll talk about Stuart Percy.